S2S Prediction in GFDL SPEAR: MJO Diversity and Teleconnections

April 5, 2022

Prediction on weather and seasonal timescales has become routine, but the “subseasonal” time scale of a few weeks has proven difficult. The Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO), a large complex of tropical thunderstorms, is the dominant subseasonal phenomenon over the tropics, and its prediction is critical for subseasonal prediction of tropical cyclones, atmospheric rivers, and other extreme events.

GFDL has developed a new subseasonal prediction system using the GFDL Seamless System for Prediction and Earth-system Research (SPEAR), a global atmosphere-ocean-land-sea ice coupled climate model. In 20 years of wintertime reforecasts, this study found that the average prediction skill of the MJO was 30 days, placing it among the very best MJO prediction models in the world. AOS Faculty Member Tom Delworth and AOS Researchers Kun Gao, Feiyu Lu, Yongqiang Sun (Rice University), and Linjiong Zhou are among the paper's co-authors.

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