How far in advance can accurate predictions of regional summer sea ice be made? Recent work has shown evidence for an Arctic sea ice spring predictability barrier, which may fundamentally limit the accuracy of predictions made before May. However, the physical mechanism for this barrier has remained elusive. A recent study, led by AOS Visiting Research Collaborator Mitchell Bushuk (GFDL/UCAR), reveals a mechanism for the Arctic sea ice spring predictability barrier, examines the evolution of the predictability barrier under climate change, and describes implications for future Arctic seasonal prediction systems. Michael Winton (GFDL) and AOS Faculty Member Thomas Delworth (GFDL) are among the paper's co-authors.
June 5, 2020