The next century will see unprecedented changes to the climate system with direct consequences for society. As stated in the National Climate Assessment, "changes in extreme weather events are the primary way that most people experience climate change." In this sense, the characteristics of extreme weather are key indicators of climate change impacts, at both local and regional scales. Understanding potential changes in the location, intensity and structure of such extremes (e.g., tropical cyclones and flooding) is crucial in planning for future adaptation as these events have large economic and social costs. The goal of this work is to better understand climate impacts on extreme weather events in various high-resolution configurations of the Community Atmosphere Model (CAM) run at horizontal grid spacings of approximately 28 km and forced with prescribed sea-surface temperatures and greenhouse gas concentrations for past, present, and future climates. This analysis will include the evaluation of conventional (AMIP-style) decadal simulations typical of climate models, short 7-day ensemble hindcasts of recent devastating events (e.g., Hurricane Florence in 2018), and reduced complexity simulations of idealized states of the climate system. Through this hierarchical modeling approach the impact of climate change on the characteristics (frequency, intensity, rainfall, etc.) of extreme weather, including tropical cyclones, can be quantified.
GFDL Formal Seminar
Thu, Feb 6, 2020, 2:00 pm to 3:00 pm
Smagorinsky Seminar Room 209